By James Petras

In Bolivia a social revolution resulted in the nationalization of the tin mines, a profound agrarian reform, the destruction of the army and the formation of workers and peasant militia. In Brazil Getulio Vargas promoted state ownership, a mixed economy and national industrialization.

The launching of the Truman doctrine in the late 1940’s, the US invasion of Korea (1950), the aggressive pursuit of the Cold war entailed vigorous US intervention against democratic left of center and nationalist regimes in Latin America. Given the green light in Washington, the Latin American oligarchies and US corporate interests backed a series of military coups and dictatorships throughout the 1950’s. In Peru General Odria seized power; Perez Jimenez seized power in Venezuela; General Castillo Armas was put in power by the CIA in Guatemala; elected President Peron was overthrown by the Argentine military in 1955; Brazilian President Vargas was driven to suicide. The US succeeded in forcing the break-up of the popular front and the outlawing of the Communist Part in Chile. The US backed Batista’s coup in Cuba, the Duvaeier and Trujillo dictatorships in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The rise of the extreme right, the overthrow of center-left regimes and the bloody repression of trade unions and peasant movements, secured US hegemony, assured conformity with US Cold war policies and opened the door wide for a corporate economic invasion.

By the end of the 1950s the very extremities of US domination and exploitation, the brutal repression of all democratic social movements and left parties and the oligarchies pillage of the public treasury led to popular upheavals and the return of leftist hegemony.

Between 1959 through 1976, leftist regimes ruled or challenged for power throughout the continent with varying degrees of success and duration. The social revolution in Cuba in 1959 and a political revolution in Venezuela in 1958, was followed by the election of nationalist populist regimes of Jango Goulart in Brazil (1962-64), Juan Bosch, (1963) reinstated for a brief moment in (1965), Salvador Allende in Chile (1970-73), and Peron in Argentina (1973-75). Progressive nationalist – populist military rulers took power in Peru (Velasco), 1968, Rodriquez in Ecuador (1970), Ovando (1968) and J. J. Torrs (1970) in Bolivia, Torrijos in Panama. All challenged US hegemony to one degree or another. All were backed by mass popular movements, clamoring for radical socio-economic reforms. Some regimes nationalized strategic economic sectors and implemented far-reaching anti-capitalist measures.

However, all but the Cuban revolution had a short life span. Even in the midst of the 1960’s – 70’s left turn, the US and its military clients intervened vigorously to revert the prospect of progressive social changes. Brazil’s Goulart fell to a US backed military coup (1964); preceded by Juan Bosch (1963) and followed by the US military invasion against the restorationist revolution of 1965/66; a US backed military coup in Bolivia overthrew Torres in 1971; Chile’s Allende was overthrown by a joint CIA – military coup in 1973; followed by Peru’s Velasco(1974) and Argentina’s Peron, 1976. The promising and deep going leftist wave was over for most of the duration of the 20th century.

Between 1976 – 2000, with the notable exception of the victory of the Sandinista revolution in 1979, the right was in ascendancy. Its long rule secure through the worst continent wide repression in the history of Latin America. The military regimes and the subsequent authoritarian neo-liberal civilian electoral regimes dismantled all tariffs and capital controls in a wild plunge into the most extreme and damaging free-market, imperial centered economic policies. Between 1976 – 2000 over five thousand public firms were privatized and most were taken over by foreign multi-nationals; over a trillion and a half dollars were transferred overseas via profits, royalties, interest payments, pillage of public treasuries, tax evasion and money laundering. However, the ‘golden era’ for US capital during the 1990s was a period of economic stagnation, social polarization and growing vulnerability to crises. The stage was set for the popular revolts of the early years of the new millennium and rise of the latest wave of center-left regimes in the region, which brings us back to the question of the sustainability of this new wave of leftist regimes.

Some World Historical Structural Changes

One of the key factors reversing past leftist waves in Latin America was the economic power and interventionary capacity of the US.

There is strong evidence that US power has suffered a relative decline on both counts. The US is no longer a creditor country; it is no longer the leading trading partner with Brazil, Chile, Peru and Argentina and is losing ground in the rest of Latin America, except for Mexico. Washington has lost influence even in it “patio”, the Caribbean and Central America, where several countries have signed up for the Venezuelan subsidized petroleum agreement (Petrocaribe). Washington, as if to compensate for its lost of economic leverage, (highlighted by the rejection of its proposed Latin American Free Trade Agreement) has increased its military presence, by expanding 7 military bases in Columbia, backing a coup in Honduras against a social liberal president and increased the presence of the Fourth Fleet off Latin America’s coast. Despite the “projection of military” power, circumstances outside of Latin America have weakened US interventionary capacity, namely the prolonged costly unending wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the military confrontation with Iran. The already high levels of public exhaustion and opposition, makes it difficult for Washington to launch fourth war in Latin America. Therefore, it relies on and finances local client military – civilian power configurations to destabilize and overthrow center-left adversaries. The increase in global markets, especially in Asia, has allowed Latin regimes to diversify their markets and investment partners, which limits the role of US MNC and limits their possible political role as purveyors of State Department policies. The financialization of the US economy, has eroded the US industrial base and limited its demand for agro-mineral export products from Latin America, shifting the latter’s dependence on new emerging powers. Moreover having suffered the consequence of financial crises, Latin regimes have imposed some regulations on capital movements, which limits the operation of US investment bank speculators, prime movers in the US economy. While Washington talks “free markets” its application of protectionist measures (on overseas leading) and subsidies to agriculture (sugar, ethanol) have antagonized key Latin American countries like Brazil. As the leading exponent of failed free market neo-liberal doctrine, the US has suffered a major loss of ideological influence in the region as a consequence of the global recession of 2007 – 2010.

For these reasons, one of the major actors (US imperialism) which has been responsible for the cyclical rise and fall of leftist regimes, has been structurally weakened, improving the chances for longer duration. Yet, the US is still a major factor acting with potent resources based on its close ties with major rightist military and economic forces in the region. Secondly, by the very nature of the development strategies chosen by the ‘center-left regimes’ they are very vulnerable to crises – namely the agro-mineral export policies based on foreign and domestic economic elites and fluctuating world demand. Thirdly, the center-left regimes have failed to resolve basic regional imbalances, to significantly lessen social inequalities and to recapture ownership and control of strategic economic sectors. These considerations call into question the middle term durability of contemporary center – left regimes.

There are few internal changes in the nature of the state apparatus and class structure which could prevent a reversion back to neo-liberal policies. The basic question of whether the current 21cs regimes are stepping stones toward further socialization or simply transitory regimes opening the way for a restoration of neo-liberal pro – US regions, is still open to dispute, even as evidence is accumulating that the latter outcome is more likely than the former.
Conclusion

The question of whether 21cs is better or worse than 20th cs depends on what versions of each we choose to compare and what political dimensions we select in our comparative evaluation.

First and foremost there is no single ’model’ of 20th century socialism, despite the facile equation of 20th century socialism with the Soviet variant. There were essentially four radically different types of 20th century socialist regimes, which in turn were internally varied.

1. Revolutionary single party regimes, which includes Cuba, North Korea, China, Vietnam and the USSR. The first four combined socialist and national liberation struggles and were consummated independently of the USSR and exhibited at different times greater and lesser degree of openness to debate and individual freedoms. The ‘four’ all fought US invasions and were all subject to embargos and under intense destabilization campaigns requiring high level of security measures.
2. Electoral revolutionary socialist regimes include Chile (1970 – 73), Grenada (1981 - 33), Guyana (1950’s), Bolivia (1970 – 71) and Nicaragua (1979 – 89). Multi-party competition and the four freedoms were encouraged even at the expense of national security. All were subject to successful US backed military intervention, military coups and economic embargoes.
3. Self-managed socialism was put in practice in Yugoslavia factories from the late 1940s to the mid 1980s and was briefly experimented in Algeria between 1963-64. US and European promoted separatist movements dissolved the Yugoslavia state and a military coup ended the Algerian experiment.
4. Social democracy based on large scale, long term social welfare program linked to state management of macro-economic policy was implemented in the Scandinavian countries, especially Sweden.

The stereotype of the Soviet model of externally imposed authoritarian socialism was applicable only to Eastern Europe; even that was subject to changes and democratic moments such as 1968 in Czechoslovakia and Hungary in the 1980s.

Likewise there are significant variations among 21cs socialists.

Venezuela has nationalized major foreign and nationally owned enterprises (oil, steel, cement, banking, telecoms) expropriated large tracts of farmland and settled over 100,000 families, financed universal public health and educational programs and encouraged community councils and worker self-management in a few instances.

Bolivia has expropriated few if any major firms. Instead Morales has promoted and signed public-private joint ventures, opened the door to dozens of foreign mining consortiums, supported political reform enhancing and extending civil rights to Indians and increased social expenditures for housing, infrastructure and poverty alleviation. No agrarian reform has taken place and none is foreseen.

The third and most conservative variant of 21cs is found in Ecuador, where major concessions to mining and petroleum companies is accompanied by the privatization of telecom concessions and subsidies to regional business elites. Rather than land reform, Correa has transferred Indian lands to mining companies for exploitation. Major claims to socialism are found in increased levels of social expenditures, the revoking of US use of a military base in Manta and a general criticism of US military and free trade policies. Correa retained the dollarized economy, limiting any expansionary fiscal policies.

By drawing on commonly agreed criteria for evaluating the socialist nature of both 20th and 21st century socialism we can form an informed judgment on their performance in achieving greater economic independence, social justice and political freedom.
Public Ownership

All variants of 20th century socialism – except the Scandinavian model – achieved greater public control over the commanding heights of the economy than their 21st century counterparts. Venezuela is the closest approximation of the 20th century experience. The comparative performance of the public, public-private and private models varies: in terms of growth and productivity, the public enterprises in the 20th century have a mixed record, of high growth tailing off to stagnation; the mixed enterprises are subject to the vagaries of the market and world demand, alternating between high growth in times of boom and depressed output in times of low commodity prices.

In terms of social relations, the social benefits and work conditions in the public sector socialism are generally more generous than in mixed and privately owned industries, though wage remuneration may be higher in the latter.

Agrarian Reform

The 20cs were far more successful in redistributing land and breaking the power of the landlord class than any measures applied by the 21cs. The redistributive reforms of the 20cs contrast with the agro-export strategies by most contemporary ‘21cs’ who have actually promoted greater concentration of landownership and inequality between agro-business elites and peasants and rural landless workers. The agrarian reforms, however, were poorly managed, especially in the case of Cuba and China and led to a second transformation, redistributing state farms to family farmers and cooperatives.

On the whole 20th century socialists were much more successful in reducing inequalities of income (but not eliminating them) than their contemporary counterparts. Because 21st century capitalists, especially big mine owners, agro-business capitalists and bankers, still control the commanding heights of the economies, the historic inequalities between the top five percent and the bottom sixty percent remain unchanged.

In terms of social welfare, 21st century socialist have increased social spending, raised the minimum wage but with the notable exception of Venezuela, do not match the universal free public health and educational programs financed by the 20th century socialism.

While there were regional imbalances between the countryside and the city under 20th century socialism; free medical care, social security and basic health care was available to the rural poor under 20cs and is still lacking in most 21cs regimes.

In terms of anti-imperialist struggles the record of 20th century is far superior to that of the 21cs. For example, Cuba sent troops and military aid to Southern Africa (especially Angola) to repulse an invasion by the racist South African regime. China sent troops in solidarity with Korea and secured the north half region from the US invading army. The USSR provided essential arms and air defense missiles in support of the Vietnamese national liberation struggle and provided Cuba with almost a half decade of economic subsidies and military aid allowing it to survive the US embargo.

Today’s 21cs with the partial exception of Venezuela have provided no material support for ongoing liberation struggles. On the contrary, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile and Argentina continue to provide military forces in support of the US sponsored occupation of Haiti. At best the 21cs condemn the US backed coup in Honduras (2009), Venezuela (2002) and military bases in Ecuador and Columbia and reject a US centered free trade agreement.

The one area in which the 21cs have an apparent advantage is in the promotion of greater individual freedoms and electoral processes. There is greater tolerance of public debate, competitive elections and political parties than was allowed in some variants of 21cs.

None the less economic democracy, or workers power was far more advanced in 20th century Chilean socialism and Yugoslavian self-management than is the case of 21cs parliamentary elections. Moreover, in the past there was greater concern for workers’ opinions in making policy even in the authoritarian systems than takes place in the current agro-mineral 21cs states. The greater openness of 21cs is related to the fact that they face less high intensity military threats. In part this is because they have not altered the basically capitalist nature of their economics.

In comparison with 20cs, the 21cs are generally more conservative, work closer with MNC are less consistently anti-imperialist and are based on multi-class coalitions that span the class hierarchy, linking the impoverished poor sectors of the middle class to the very powerful agro-mineral elites. Though 21cs may occasionally make reference to class analysis, in times of crises their operative concepts obscure class divisions through the use vague non-specific’ populist’ categories.

Perhaps the radical image of the 21cs results from their contrast with the previous extremist rightwing regimes which ruled during the previous quarter century. The socialist label pinned on contemporary regime by Washington and the western media represents a nostalgia for a past of unfettered political submission, unregulated economic pillage, and robust repression of popular movements rather than an empirical analysis of their socio-economic policies.

Even as the 21cs are less radical and perhaps distant from commonly accepted definitions of socialist politics, they still have drawn the line in opposition to US militarism and interventionism, have put a cap on control over natural resources and provide greater tolerance for the organization of social movements.

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James Petras is the author of more than 62 books published in 29 languages, and over 600 articles in professional journals, including the American Sociological Review, British Journal of Sociology, Social Research, and Journal of Peasant Studies. He has published over 2000 articles in nonprofessional journals such as the New York Times, the Guardian, the Nation, Christian Science Monitor, Foreign Policy, New Left Review, Partisan Review, TempsModerne, Le Monde Diplomatique, and his commentary is widely carried on the internet. James Petras, is a former Professor of Sociology at Binghamton University, New York, owns a 50-year membership in the class struggle, is an adviser to the landless and jobless in Brazil and Argentina, and is co-author of Globalization Unmasked (Zed Books) and Zionism, Militarism and the Decline of US Power (Clarity Press, 2008). Look for James Petras latest book Global Depression and Regional Wars: The United States, Latin America and the Middle East (Clarity Press September 2009) He can be reached at: jpetras@binghamton.edu. | Read other articles by James petras, or visit his website: http://petras.lahaine.org/index.php

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